Blackberry traffic Dimensioning

Does any one know how to do a traffic model on Blackberry traffic? with new applications every day it’s pretty hard to forecast traffic growth on a mathematical way. which variables to use? which probabilities of concurrent traffic to use?
it’s a worldwide phenomena the exponential growth and it’s impacting on operator’s opex.
Not even RIM knows how to do it, aparently they don’t care since the capacity problem is from the operator side and it’s just good business to them.
thanks for any advice.